the plan for the future
15 October 2020 (latest revision: 14 August 2021)
The makers of the book Poor Because of Money of the Social Trade Organisation wrote that if you look at our monetary system from the perspective of a Martian, the first thing you will notice is that money organises the economy least where it is needed most. Money leaves areas where it is already in short supply. Monetary deserts pop up where mutual trade disappears, and with money, the economic organisation vanishes.
The underlying cause, they believed, is the current monetary system that imposes interest charges on the poorest. It charges interest on money created out of thin air. Most people do not realise the enormous consequences because we do not notice how interest charges increase the prices of all products. The money taken from the poor by interest accumulates in the hands of the rich.
It was a reason to introduce interest-free local currencies. The success in Wörgl has inspired people all over the world to start local or regional currencies. A few are more widely known, for instance, the Brixton Pound, the Chiemgaur and BerkShares. But these currencies didn't produce an economic miracle like in Wörgl. They are now called complementary currencies. They can supplement the existing global financial system, but they cannot replace it.
Issuers of local and regional currencies aim to keep money circulating within the local community or region. Exchanging complementary currencies for regular currencies often comes with exchange costs. If you own complementary currency, you are more willing to spend it on local or regional products. There may be a holding fee or demurrage to stimulate spending. But the miracle in Wörgl was never replicated. The reasons probably are:
Proponents of complementary currencies argue that social benefits in the form of more vibrant communites offset the drawbacks of reduced economic efficiency. In reality, most people prefer the benefits of economic efficiency in the form of cheaper or better products. Only when the regular economy fails, as was the case in Wörgl during the Great Depression, complementary currencies can become a success.
And counterparty risk stands in the way of developing financial markets in complementary currencies if they are successful. In reality, lending and borrowing in these currencies hardly materialises. In other words, interest rates on loans in complementary currencies would be higher if lenders are to be compensated for the risk of default. But interest charges in financial markets were a reason to start these currencies in the first place.
This brings us at the explanation why that might be so. It is not the monetary system that imposes interest. There are two reasons for interest to exist. The first has to do with supply and demand for money and capital. The second has to do with risk, for instance counterparty risk. The people from the Social Trade Organisation are still busy finding ways to support local and regional economies. The research of Natural Money deals with interest in market economies.
The abundance of capital in the global financial system in combination with efficient financial markets drove interest rates to zero. Interest rates can even go below zero. It appears that people, businesses and governments can access to these low interest rates if their creditworthiness is good. Important prerequisites for ending usury therefore are financial integrity and access to financial services.
With Natural Money there is a holding fee or demurrage in the global financial system, for instance on currencies like the US dollar and the euro. To end usury, borrowers in financial markets must be trustworthy and high standards of integrity need to apply on governments. Issues like budget deficits, fraud, tax-evasion and corruption should be tackled, and every country in the world strive to be as free from corruption as Denmark or New Zealand.
The future is anyone's guess. Current trends of resource and fossil fuel consumption in the global economy are unsustainable. The availability of energy sources is crucial. With unlimited and nearly-free energy, it may be possible to recycle natural resources in a global economy with a high standard of living. If energy becomes scarce, the global economy may disintegrate, and world markets may only trade products with significant economies of scale.
Nowadays, local markets for most products do not exist because of the availability of cheap energy. Cheap energy is the basis of our current wealth. Produce is transported to every corner of the world so we can buy crap and then throw it away. We depend on fossil fuels and deplete the resources of our planet at an unprecedented speed. Something has to give, and very soon.
Standards of living may drop. Global markets may disintegrate. The reach of governments may decline. People may have to fend for themselves and move from the cities to the countryside. Communities may fill the void once markets and governments retreat. Complementary currencies may have a bright future. Only, that may be far too optimistic. A collapse of civilisation is likely to cause anarchy in which gangs and warlords take over. That is not what most people desire.
Civilisational collapse appears less likely when interest rates are negative. An underlying reason for a breakdown may be a shortage of energy and resources. The immediate cause could be diminishing returns on investments in social complexity, which is organisation and specialisation. With negative interest rates, it makes economic sense to invest in projects with low returns like production and storage of renewable energy, resulting in a graceful transition rather than a collapse.
Once energy becomes expensive, production is likely to localise regardless of the currency system. Complementary currencies do not make that happen. They can help to mitigate the impact of a failing currency system. During the Great Depression, the currency system failed because interest rates could not go below zero. In Argentine, complementary currencies helped people cope with financial collapse.
The Social Trade Organisation recently issued the Money Multiplier that can increase the impact of money in poor regions. Using their award-winning FinTech software package Cyclos, communities and regions can reprogramme money to make it circulate in the community or region. These solutions require a commitment within the community or region, including the local or regional government.
The economic future of complementary currencies most likely remains marginal unless there is a financial collapse. Economics is not all that matters. Vibrant communities matter too. Only, these things do not come easy. They require commitment within these communities and regions.
1. The Collapse of Complex Societies. Joseph A. Tainter (1990).